Iran’s Uprising and the Global Fallout :
All newspapers and analysts are speculating about the “possible fall of the mullahs” and what will happen afterwards. What if the fall of the mullahs redrew the geopolitical map of the Middle East?
For several weeks, Iran has been crossed by unusually large protests, affecting both major cities that have long remained in retreat. Slogans now directly criticize the mullahs’ religious and political authority, rather than only the economic circumstances or corruption. The issue then arises: what would happen if this regime were truly ousted? Beyond the internal shock, the consequences would be profound, regional, and international, to the point of sustainably recomposing geopolitical balances.
The first reality to recall is simple: the fall of a regime never automatically produces a new stable order. Everything depends on what follows it. In Iran, power is not based solely on a religious ideology but on a security state, structured around armed forces and powerful economic networks. A popular impeachment would therefore open an uncertain transition period, during which the central question would be the following: who controls the state , the borders, and the armed forces?
On the domestic front, it could be marked by strong tensions. The end of the theocratic regime could give rise to immense popular hope but also a risk of disorder: settling of accounts, administrative paralysis, and monetary crisis. However, this chaotic phase could also open up a historical window. A credible transition power would have every interest in quickly stabilizing the economy, because the current social anger is largely fed by inflation, the fall of the currency, and international isolation.
However, it is at the regional level that the tremor would be most visible. For more than twenty years, Iran has not only been a state; it is the center of an ideological and military network of influence from Iraq to Lebanon and from Syria to Yemen. If this center collapses, the entire edifice is weakened. The allies and relay of Tehran would not disappear overnight, but they would lose their main strategic, financial, and logistical support.
For Israel, the fall of the mullahs would represent both an opportunity and a danger. Opportunity, because ideological Iran, the engine of regional confrontation, would be weakened. Danger, because an unstable transition phase can produce unpredictable decisions, particularly around sensitive military capabilities. The Israeli objective would then remain clear: avoid any loss of control over strategic issues, in particular nuclear power.
The monarchies of the Gulf would adopt a cautious stance. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates could see in a post-mullah Iran the possibility of a lasting de-escalation. But they would refrain from appearing as too visible actors in the transition, for fear of fueling a nationalist discourse or provoking violent reactions.
Internationally, the fall of the Iranian regime would also disrupt the balance of power. The United States and Europe would seek above all to avoid chaos. Their priority would not be ideological but pragmatic: to prevent proliferation, secure sensitive facilities, and accompany a gradual stabilization. A gradual easing of sanctions could be used as leverage, but without undue illusions, for an immediate conversion of Iran to a Western camp.
Conversely, Russia and China would see their position undermined. Both benefited from the isolation of Iran to strengthen their economic and strategic influence there. A new Iranian power, even non-aligned, would probably seek to diversify its partnerships, reducing their advantage. Beijing, primarily concerned with energy stability, would adapt quickly, while Moscow would get closer to other regional players
Finally, the energy dimension would be central. Iran is located at the heart of global oil routes, via the Strait of Hormuz. A peaceful transition could lower the geopolitical risk premium and promote a gradual return of Iranian oil to markets. A period of fragmentation would increase tensions, with immediate effects on energy prices and maritime safety.
Ultimately, yes, the fall of the mullahs could recompose the geopolitical map, but nothing is automatic. Everything would depend on the nature of the post-diet. A negotiated transition would pave the way for a more transactional, less ideological Middle East based on soft coalitions rather than rigid blocks. A chaotic collapse, on the other hand, would create lasting instability, with consequences well beyond the region. Iran, by its demographic, strategic, and symbolic weight, would in any case remain one of the major pivots of the international order to come.
Source: The Times of Israel
